Biodemography of Human
Longevity
Leonid Gavrilov
Center
on Aging, NORC
and the University of Chicago
(Abstract
of keynote lecture at the International
Conference on Longevity, Sydney,
Australia, March 5-7, 2004)
Biodemography
is a
multidisciplinary approach, integrating biological knowledge (studies
on human
biology and animal models) with demographic research on human longevity
and
survival. Biodemographic studies are
important for understanding the driving forces of current longevity
revolution
(dramatic increase in human life expectancy), forecasting the
future of human longevity, and
identification of new strategies for further increase in healthy and
productive
life span.
Biodemographic
studies found a remarkable similarity in survival dynamics between
humans and
laboratory animals. Specifically,
three
general biodemographic laws of survival are found:
(1) Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality;
(2)
Compensation law of mortality, and
(3)
Late-life mortality deceleration.
The
Gompertz-Makeham law states
that death rate is a sum of age-independent
component (Makeham term) and age-dependent component (Gompertz
function), which
increases exponentially with age.
The
Compensation law of mortality
(late-life mortality convergence) states
that the
relative differences in death rates between different populations of
the same
biological species are decreasing with age, because the higher initial
death
rates are compensated by lower pace of their increase with age.
The Late-life mortality
deceleration law
states
that death rates stop to increase exponentially at advanced ages and
level-off
to the late-life mortality plateau. An
immediate consequence from this observation is that there is no fixed
upper
limit to human longevity - there is no special fixed number, which
separates
possible and impossible values of lifespan.
This conclusion is important, because it challenge the common
belief in existence
of a fixed maximal human life span.
Biodemographic
studies found that even genetically identical laboratory animals kept
in
constant environment have very different lengths of life, suggesting a
crucial
role of chance and early-life developmental noise in longevity
determination. This leads to new
approaches in understanding
causes of exceptional human longevity.
As for the future
of human longevity, it is important to understand that longevity
revolution had
two very distinct stages – the initial stage of mortality decline at
younger
ages is now replaced by a new trend of preferential improvement of the
oldest-old survival. This phenomenon invalidates methods of longevity
forecasting based on extrapolation of long-term historical trends.
Finally, a general
explanation of aging and longevity is suggested based on system
reliability theory.
Click here
for Power Point
Presentation (4Mb).
The
Conference organizers selected this keynote lecture with two other
lectures
(one by a representative from the United Nations, and another by a
representative from the World Health Organization) for a world-wide
distribution in the form of DVD (DVD04_01).
Relevant
Publications:
1. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life Span: A
Quantitative Approach, NY: Harwood Academic Publisher, 1991, 385p.
2. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The quest for a
general theory of aging and longevity. Science's SAGE KE
(Science of Aging Knowledge Environment) for 16 July 2003; Vol. 2003,
No. 28, 1-10.
3. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S., Olshansky
S.J., Carnes B.A. Genealogical
data and biodemography of human longevity. Social Biology, 2002,
49(3-4): 160-173.
4. Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Biodemographic
study of familial determinants of human longevity. Population: An
English Selection, 2001, 13(1): 197-222.
5. Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Data resources for
biodemographic studies on familial clustering of human longevity.
Demographic Research [Online], 1999, vol.1(4): 1-48. Available: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol1/4/
6. Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A.,
Evdokushkina G.N., Semyonova, V.G., Gavrilova, A.L., Evdokushkina,
N.N., Kushnareva, Yu.E., Kroutko, V.N., Andreyev, A.Yu. Evolution,
mutations and human longevity. Human Biology, 1998, 70(4): 799-804.
7. Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Fruit fly aging and
mortality. Letter, Science, 1993, 260(5114): 1565-1565.
8. Gavrilov, L. A. Biodemographic
aspects of life span studies. In: Demographic Studies,
Moscow: Moscow State Univ. Press, 1988, 105-121.
9. Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S.,
Yaguzhinsky, L.S. The
main regularities of animal aging and death viewed in terms of
reliability theory. J. General Biology [Zhurnal Obschey Biologii],
1978, 39(5): 734-742.
This keynote lecture
received an
average score of 4.21 out of 5.00 maximum possible points in its
anonymous evaluation conducted by the Organizing Committee among
the Conference participants.
Some comments
include:
-- "Great
to see such a dedicated,
warm scientist."
-- "Amazing!
We consider a
genetic reason for everything. Every aspect has to be considered."
-- "Content
was fascinating &
pitched at an intelligent level - Great!!"
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